[Note that between 75-80% of programmers do not have computer science degrees. If that ratio holds, it means that the number of graduates who will want to enter the programming profession greatly exceeds the number of openings (144-180,000 graduates vs 137,000 jobs).]

http://www.computerworld.com/home/online9697.nsf/all/980109report1BB92
ComputerWorld
(IT Careers news, 01/09/98 12:44:58 PM)



Report calls for more training to alleviate computer worker shortage
Margret Johnston



U.S. universities and trade schools are turning out only about one-quarter of the computer science graduates needed to fill new and replacement jobs in programming and other software-related positions, a government report released yesterday shows.



The National Software Alliance report estimates the number of openings for software workers nationwide is about 137,000 annually. That compares with 36,000 students who graduated in 1996 with a bachelor's, master's or doctoral degree in computer science. The report also says that despite increasing demand, the number of bachelor's degrees awarded in computer science in the U.S. declined between 1988 and 1995 by 42% to 24,400.



To help fill job openings, companies are drawing software workers from the ranks of students who graduated with associate's degrees or related degrees such as mathematics, physics and electrical engineering, the report said. Companies also are relying on immigrants. The number of foreign computer professionals entering the U.S. increased more than 450% from 1988 to 1995, according to the report.



The National Software Alliance, an organization of industry, government and academic leaders, compiled the data from hundreds of articles, essays and speeches chronicling the software labor shortage over the past year. Alliance researchers also consulted industry, academic and government surveys and reports on the information technology workforce.



"This issue is very serious no matter how you cut it," said Norm Brown, executive director of the National Software Alliance, which was established in 1992.



The Department of Defense, for example, spends about $20 billion annually on computer science training programs, said Henry C. Kelly, associate director of technology in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, in a speech to a meeting sponsored by the National Software Alliance yesterday. Kelly outlined the goal of making better use of technical-based education to lower the cost of this training, but he said such methods of educating people still haven't met their potential.



The National Software Alliance also said it has launched a project to identify the best hiring and retention methods used by private industry. The alliance is soliciting companies to participate in a case study that will track four common software positions in U.S. industries. The study will track changes in the search and retention process of the four positions for one year.



The report concludes that the shortage could have a negative impact on the economy by increasing pressure for higher wages, which could lead to inflation. It could also create understaffing, which could lead to lower productivity. The only viable long-term solution to the software labor shortage is increased education and training programs, and to update academic programs to teach the latest skills required by the industry, the report found.