[Here the programmer shortage is 400,000 and will grow to 1.3M according to NCR]

Worldwide workforce
By Laura A. Bischoff
DAYTON DAILY NEWS
Sunday, July 11, 1999

Anil Urs and Phani B. Konduru both came to the United States from
India on student visas in the early 1990s. They earned masters'
degrees in engineering and landed good jobs at Reynolds and Reynolds
in 1996.

The Dayton-based company relies on Urs and Konduru to design and write
computer software for Reynolds' plants and divisions and to manage
about 35 employees.

Urs and Konduru, like thousands of skilled foreign nationals, are
allowed to work in this country with H-1B visas. Companies nationwide
have come to rely on such workers to fill computer programming,
engineering and other technical jobs.

The growing information technology industry has created a shortage of
some high-tech workers, such as engineers and computer programmers.
For example, unemployment among electrical engineers is just 0.3
percent and there are 350,000 openings in information technology
jobs--more than 10 percent of the total IT work force.

Three Dayton-based IT companies--NCR Corp., Reynolds and Reynolds and
MTC International--employ more than 100 foreign nationals through H-1B
visas. But the flow of skilled foreign workers into the States has
been stemmed. In June, the H-1B visa program reached the annual cap of
115,000 foreign workers with special talents and no more of the visas
will be issued until the next federal fiscal year begins Oct. 1.

This is the third consecutive year that the United States has hit the
cap before the end of the federal fiscal year--even though the cap was
nearly doubled last year from 65,000 to 115,000 after high-tech
companies, including NCR, successfully lobbied Congress.

Most companies in the Miami Valley said hitting the visa cap earlier
this year isn't likely to adversely affect them. But human-resources
officials from Reynolds and Reynolds, NCR and other IT companies say
it will be a bit more difficult filling vacancies without access to
foreign nationals.

"To some extent, it diminishes the applicant pool from which we can
draw," said Connie Donovan, NCR's vice president of human resources
and planning. The H-1B visa allows a worker in specialty occupations
to work in this country for six years. The visas are used mostly to
bring computer programmers here from overseas, particularly from
India, England, Japan, the Philippines and Germany.

Information technology industry officials say that without enough
foreign workers product development will slow and the nation's economy
will be harmed.

"That's a very strong argument ... I think it's definitely
believable," said Sherry Neal, an attorney with Hammond and
Associates, a Cincinnati law firm that handles immigration work for
about 70 companies nationwide.

Some labor groups and critics maintain that IT companies want foreign
workers who are more loyal and paid less. Federal regulations,
however, prohibit paying an H-1B visa worker less.

The visa cap will hold at 115,000 in 2000 then drop to 107,500 in 2001
and revert to 65,000 after that. The thinking was to rachet the number
down after Y2K problems are solved.

IT companies have been saying the cap still isn't high enough, given
that the demand for tech talent shows no sign of letting up. President
Clinton's chief economic adviser, Laura D'Andrea Tyson, writes in
Business Week that unemployment rates for IT workers are below 2
percent, forcing regional employers to mount national recruiting
campaigns. It's time to raise the cap yet again, Tyson says.

There are roughly 400,000 IT job vacancies now and that figure is
expected to grow to 1.3 million in the next decade, said NCR's
Donovan. And more than half of the students graduating from American
engineering and computer science programs are foreigners, she said.
"You really have to look at foreign workers from outside the U.S.,"
Donovan said.

"The work force has changed and the way we look at staffing and the
work force has changed. It's no longer a national event," Donovan
said. "Your world is a lot bigger. As business grows and becomes more
global, your work force becomes more global."

Some companies, such as Reynolds and Reynolds and MTC International's
Corbus resort to "off-shore programming," a practice where projects
are sent to computer programmers overseas.

Neal said foreign nationals may appear to be more loyal workers
because they aren't as mobile as other in-demand tech workers. The
Immigration and Naturalization Service must give approval before
foreign nationals change jobs--a process that can take six weeks.
"Some of the U.S. workers, they get a job offer and they are gone in a
week," she said.

But overall, it's easier to hire a U.S. worker than bring someone in
on a visa, Neal said. A company must pay a $610 fee and go through the
U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization
Service and the U.S. Department of State.

"They would hire U.S. workers if they could find them and they were
qualified," she said.

Neal, who helped clients lobby for the increased cap, said there is
concern--particularly in labor unions--that the foreign workers will
take jobs from Americans. In reality, there just aren't enough skilled
Americans to fill all the vacant tech positions, she said.

Congressmen responded last year with the compromise: a temporary cap
increase and a hike in the visa application fee from $110 to $610,
with the extra $500 going toward scholarships and training for U.S.
workers. Employers pay the fee.

The money is supposed to go toward training programs that will relieve
U.S. dependency on foreign workers. The U.S. Department of Labor will
use some of the money for training programs, and the National Science
Foundation will use some for scholarships for low-income students in
math, engineering and computer science.

But Konduru said the need for IT workers is outpacing the country's
ability to train U.S. workers.

"The boom is happening faster than people can react. That's what's
happening," Konduru said.