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The Great Programmer Shortage PropagandaIndustry estimates of the size of the programmer shortage appear to be based upon a model of Brownian Motion. Here are shortage numbers as reported by various news organizations:
Taking a look at the TOTAL NUMBER of IT jobs in these articles:
Using the ITAA's numbers, the number of IT jobs grew: What does the Government Say?For the same period the Bureau of Labor Statistics Gives for the number of Computer programmers, engineers and scientists: 1997 - 1.862M Source: An Information Technology Labor Shortage (PDF Format) Prepared by the Congressional Research Service (June 14, 2001) The Department of Commerce says there is no evidence of a shortage ComputerWorld January 28, 2002 Shortage StoriesSurvey shows huge lack of IT workers ComputerWorld February 26, 1997Here the ITAA claims a shortage of 191,000. IS labor drought will last past 2003 ComputerWorld June 30, 1997Here Dr. Howard Rubin says the shortage is 200,000 and that there are 1,200,000 IT workers in the U.S. TechNet seeks to lobby Congress and boost U.S. education ComputerWorld July 8, 1997Jim Barksdale of Technet claims the shortage is 300,000. Staffing shortage imperils U.S. economy ComputerWorld December 1, 1997Dr. Howard Rubin says the shortage is 350,000. Report calls for more training to alleviate computer worker shortage ComputerWorld January 9, 1998National Software Alliance claims 137,000 new computer jobs annually. Pressure Gap: Transforming the IT workforce ComputerWorld February 2, 1998Challenging the ITAA's claims of a 346,000 shortage. A dyed-in-the-wool skeptic Forbes January 1, 1999High-Tech Education Not Popular AP April 4, 1999An AEA report with an interesting method for distorting the results. Federal researchers see no skills shortage Ottawa Citizen April 24, 1999Canadian government can't find the programmer shortage industry claims exists there. Report Indicates Decrease in High-Tech Degrees New York Times May 5, 1999Another story on the AEA study High-tech visas problem not over yet San Jose Mercury News June 25, 1999Labor shortage is 340,000 Computers and Clout Strong Encryption, More Visas on Agenda Scripps Howard News Service, July 5, 1999The shortage is 350,000 Visa rule's effect on 2000 election San Francisco Examiner July 11, 1999Meta Group claims a 400,000 shortage Worldwide workforce Dayton Daily News July 11, 1999Here the programmer shortage is 400,000. A.T. Kearny Study
Industry claims 160,000 open jobs in Silicon Valley must be filled from outside the area or remain open, each vacency costing between $6-8,000. Where are the Workers? Teck Week July 28, 1999ITAA shortage is 346,000 Meta Group says the number is 400,000. Age discrimination. Low pay Testimony of Congressman David Dreier (R-CA) House Judiciary Committee August 5, 1999Congressman Dreier says 95,000 computer jobs will be created each year. House debates H-1B visa cap ComputerWorld August 5, 1999Features TRW High-tech visas back on political agenda EE Times August 6, 1999Here there will be IT 300,000 jobs. Vis-a-visa Red Herring August 9, 1999ITAA Claims 346,000 programming openings. Also contains Zoe Lofgren's press secretary's famous quote about $60,000 a year being "peanuts in Silicon Valley". Need for Computer Experts Is Making Recruiters Frantic New York Times November 18, 1999ITAA says there is a 350,000 programmer shortage. Skill-based Visas Ignite New Debate The Boston Globe March 10, 2000Here the programmer shortage is 300,000. Work force not keeping up with tech job market AP April 9, 2000Here the ITAA claims the programmer shortage to be 843,328 and they measured it within +/- 3%. Visas For High-Tech Workers Debated Chicago Tribune May 28, 2000Here the programmer shortage is between 300,000 and 800,000 Michigan Economic Development Corporation Press Release May 25, 2000Claims 130,000 information technology jobs will be created this year. Senate grapples with high-tech 'labor gap' Christian Science Monitor, September 22, 2000A recent Commerce Department study found that the data on labor shortages in the industry didn't support a conclusion either way WagesHiring easier in computer technology The Morning Call, April 8, 2001It has become an "employer's market" for hiring computer professionals. Metro incomes increasing even faster than inflation Denver Post, August 2, 2000Wage for professional workers are rising in Denver, with the exception that they are DECLINING for programmers. How can this be with a huge programmer shortage? AbsurdityNasscom continues to be upbeat on software exports NASSCOM Press Release March 13, 2001The ITAA claims it supports H-1B to prevent jobs from going overseas. So why is it signing a deal to export more software development to India? India’s Q3 software exports up 65% Cyber Nation of India February 6, 20001Slowdown? What slowdown? Far from being affected by the US slowdown, Indian software exports in Q3 have grown by an impressive 65% to Rs 7,160 crore. Nasscom has projected overall exports of Rs 28,500 crore for fiscal 2000-01. GOP Eyes boost in Foreign Workers ComputerWorld August 9, 1999Are raises bad for America? U.S. News & World Report, August 30, 1999Intel describes how H-1B is part of a strategy for keeping wages down. Technical difficulties: Cap on visas to foreign workers has high-tech companies struggling to fill jobs Fort Worth Star-Telegram April 16, 2000 High-tech firms ask Congress to up foreign worker limits San Diego Union Tribue July 4, 1999 Qualcomm claims they can't find people. Also info on the Chenai audit. Layoffs Persist Despite Labor Crunch Electronic News November 29, 1999 Tech visas bogged down San Jose Mercury News July 26, 2000 Engineer shortage called danger to military readiness EE Times, September 21, 2000Companies claim they can't find engineers, but only want to pay $35,000 a year for them. The catch-22 of coveted H-1B visas MS-NBC, September 24, 2000"It's [H-1B] an incredible source for bringing in cost-effective labor that we have a shortage for," So many IT jobs, so few takers Chicago Sun, September 28, 2000"If you're willing to pay market rate, you can find
people," said Pete AnalysisEasing restrictions on visas doesn't help any high-tech workers Economic Policy Institute, April 18, 2001How and Why Government, Universities and Industry Create Domestic Labor Shortages: An Introduction to the Real NSF 'Shortage' StudyDr. Eric Weinstein recounts how the NSF has suppressed evidence there is no labor shortage. Employment of Scientists and Engineers Reaches 3.2 Million in 1995 (PDF Format) National Science Founation, August 13, 1998Not mentioned here is that the NSF's SESAT web page says there were 12 Million people in the U.S. with Science or Engineering degrees in 1995. In other words, only about 1/4 of these people were working in the field. GAO faults study claiming high-tech workers are scarce Washington Post March 23, 1998"The GAO, the investigative arm of Congress, also criticized the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA), a trade group representing 11,000 employers nationwide, for reports that raised alarms about a "severe shortage" of computer workers based on job vacancies in a sampling of companies. The GAO questioned "the reliability of ITAA's survey findings," saying they were not supported by sufficient data. " Testimony of John Fraser, Department of Labor U.S. House April 21, 1998Industry inflates vacancy statistics, lays off workers while claiming a shortage, fails to tap underrepresented groups. Stop Wasting Your Workers ComputerWorld June 26, 2000Barbara Gomolski explains how the IT industry creates its own worker shortage. Unemployment Rate Is Only 4%, But That's 5.6 Million Jobless Wall Street Journal July 25, 2000Immigration reform, yes. More immigrants, no. Minneapolis Star-Tribune, July 30, 2000A job crisis? IT all depends Philadelphia Inquirer, September 20, 2000People With Non-Technical DegreesInternet Leaders See Advantages In Non-Technical Degrees ComputerWorld December 12, 1999TidbitsUntitled Newsbytes August 5, 1999TRW says 70% of their resumes come from foreigners. H-1B Hubbub Heats Up Electronic News July 10, 2000Important Quote: Whether there is or is not a shortage (of electrical engineers), the quick answer is that there is no data that overwhelmingly proves there is or there isn't," said Dan Hecker, a Bureau of Labor Statistics labor economist in the office of employment projections. Foreign Affairs ComputerWorld, August 28, 2000"One year ago, I was very apprehensive about my company's ability to
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